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E62

Fiscal Policy

publication

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks’ capital buffers in South Africa

Konstantin Makrelov, Neryvia Pillay and Bojosi Morule
South Africa’s fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, while the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations using the Arellano and Bond (1991) estimator to test how...
Jun 2021
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publication

Time consistency and economic growth: A case study of South African macroeconomic policy

Christopher Loewald, David Faulkner and Konstantin Makrelov
The numerous diagnostic studies and policy recommendations that exist for South Africa typically focus on microeconomic constraints to growth. Higher potential growth certainly requires structural reforms to boost productivity growth, in particular to allow private competition and investment in...
Nov 2020
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publication

How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach

Baneng Naape and Nyasha Mahonye
This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 – 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds...
Sep 2020
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publication

Fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment

Fernando Garcia-Barragan and Guangling Liu
This paper investigates the effect of fiscal stimulus from an emerging market economy perspective. The model captures the signicant decline in China's net exports and remarkable quantity of resources that the Chinese government invested into the economy through state-owned enterprises in the...
Aug 2018
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publication

Fiscal Consolidation, Fiscal Policy Transmission, and Current Account Dynamics in South Africa

Christine S. Makanza and J. Paul Dunne
The debate on global current account imbalances continues to develop, with growing interest in the macroeconomic instability and widening current account de…cits faced by emerging markets. Literature establishes that the current account behaves di¤erently depending on macroeconomic circumstances in...
Dec 2015
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publication

Debt sustainability and financial crises in South Africa

Leroi Raputsoane and Ruthira Naraidoo
This study assesses debt sustainability in South Africa allowing for possible nonlinearities in the form of threshold behaviour by fiscal authorities. A long historical data series on the debt-to-GDP ratio and models with fixed and time-varying thresholds allowing the level of debt to vary relative...
Jan 2014
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publication

Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy

Charl Jooste, Guangling (Dave) Liu and Ruthira Naraidoo
This paper is the first one to analyse the effect of aggregate government spending and taxes on output for South Africa using three types of a calibrated DSGE model and more data driven models such as a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) and a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) to...
May 2013
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publication

Monetary Policy Response to Foreign Aid in an Estimated DSGE Model of Malawi

Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
This paper estimates a Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Malawi and uses it to account for short-run monetary policy response to aid inflows between 1980 and 2010. In particular, the paper evaluates the existence of a “Dutch Disease” following an increase in foreign...
May 2013
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