Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

Is Basel III counter-cyclical: The case of South Africa?

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with banking and a macro-prudential authority, and studies the extent to which the Basel III bank capital regulation promotes financial and macroeconomic stability in the context of South African economy. The decomposition analysis of the transition from Basel II to Basel III suggests that it is the counter-cyclical capital buffer that effectively mitigates the pro-cyclicality of its predecessor, while the impact of the conservative buffer is marginal.

Welfare analysis of bank capital requirements with endogenous default

This paper presents a tractable framework with endogenous default and evaluates the welfare implication of bank capital requirements. We analyze the response of social welfare to a negative technology shock under different capital requirement regimes with and without default. We show that including default as an additional indicator of capital requirements is welfare improving. When implementing capital requirements, a more aggressive reaction to the default rate is more effective for weakening the negative effect of the shock on welfare.

Effects of South African Monetary Policy Implementation on the CMA: A Panel Vector Autoregression Approach

The paper investigates the effects of South African monetary policy implementation on selected macroeconomic variables in the rest of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) looking specifically at the response of a shock to South African key interest rate (repo rate) on macroeconomic variables such as the regional lending rates, interest rate spread, private sector credit, money supply, inflation and economic growth in the rest of the CMA countries. The analysis is conducted using impulse-response functions derived from Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) methodology.

Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Markets in Quasi-Emerging Market Economies

The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction of formal and informal financial markets and their impact on economic activity in quasi-emerging market economies. Using a four-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with asymmetric information in the formal financial sector, we come up with three fundamental findings.

Forecasting the South African Economy: A DSGE-VAR Approach

This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption, investment and hours worked, for the South African economy, over the period of 1970:1 to 2000:4.

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