Back to top

E31

Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

Publication

Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price-exchange rate-asymmetry perspectives

Kazeem Isah, Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy, Elias Udeaja, Ojo Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubua
Motivated by the distinctive paradoxical nature of the Nigerian economy as the only OPEC oil-exporting economy that yet depends heavily on the importation of gasoline, we are compelled to re-examine the accuracy of the oil-based augmented Philips curve model in the predictability of inflation...
Feb 2022
Read more
Publication

Big data forecasting of South African inflation

Byron Botha, Rulof Burger, Kevin Kotze, Neil Rankin, and Daan Steenkamp
We investigate whether the use of machine learning techniques and big data can enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts and our understanding of the drivers of South African inflation. We make use of a large dataset for the disaggregated prices of consumption goods and services to compare the...
Feb 2022
Read more
Publication

What Price-Level Data Tells Us About Consumer Price Rigidity in Zimbabwe: Evidence From New Data

Mike Nyawo and Neil Rankin
This paper documents the price setting behaviour, and the change in this behaviour, amongst retail firms after the introduction of the new currency system in Zimbabwe. We use sample data which covers 291 products to investigate whether prices became more flexible (rigid) and to track the adjustment...
May 2016
Read more
Publication

Inflation Dynamics in a Dollarised Economy: The Case of Zimbabwe

William Kavila and Pierre Le Roux
This paper explores the dynamics of inflation in the dollarised Zimbabwean economy using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly data from 2009:1 to 2012:12. The main determinants of inflation were found to be the US dollar/South African rand exchange rate, international oil...
May 2016
Read more
Publication

Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

Johannes W. Fedderke and Yang Liu
We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips-curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist, and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour...
Apr 2016
Read more
Publication

Assessment of Monetary Union in SADC: Evidence from Cointegration and Panel Unit Root Tests

Mulatu F Zerihun, Marthinus C Breitenbach and Francis Kemegue
In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) being successful from the viewpoint of the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area (OCA) theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-...
Feb 2015
Read more

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - E31