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E21

Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth

Stock Return Predictability in South Africa: An Alternative Approach

Ailie Charteris and Barry Strydom
There is considerable debate internationally as to whether share returns are predictable. The limited evidence in South Africa (Gupta and Modise, 2012a, b and 2013) reveals that valuation ratios have no forecasting power but the Treasury bill rate, term spread and money supply have been found to be...
May 2016
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Private Wealth in a Developing Country: A South African Perspective on Piketty

Anna Orthofer
The point of departure of Thomas Piketty’s influential Capital in the Twenty-First Century was the dramatic growth of private wealth-income ratios in the advanced economies between 1970 and 2010. Using official balance sheet data for South Africa—the first country to publish such data in the...
Dec 2015
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What we talk about when we talk about saving: Concepts and measures of household saving and their application to South Africa

Anna Orthofer
South African household savings rates have been declining steadily over the last five decades, from about ten percent of national income to nil or negative levels today. Due to the importance of savings on both the household - and aggregate level, the government has introduced several initiatives...
Jul 2015
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Evolution of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Malawi: A TVP-VAR with Stochastic Volatility Approach

Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
This paper investigates the evolution of monetary transmission mechanism in Malawi between 1981 and 2010 using a time varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate how the responses of real output and general price level to bank rate, exchange rate...
Nov 2013
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The Impact of Later Retirement Ages on Aggregate Household Savings and Saving Rates: An Analysis of OECD Countries

Aylit Tina Romm and Martha Wolny
As a result of population aging, governments of many OECD countries have begun to implement policies to increase average retirement ages in an attempt to alleviate some of the …nancial strain in supporting retirees. This paper explores the effect that later retirement ages have on aggregate...
Mar 2012
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Retirement Date Effects on Pre-Retirement Wealth Accumulation: An Analysis of US Households

Aylit Tina Romm
This paper uses seven waves of data from the US Health and Retirement Study to investigate the impact of expectations regarding the timing of retirement on pre-retirement wealth accumulation. More specifically, we analyze the effect of the individual's subjective belief that he will work full...
Feb 2012
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Who is Credit Constrained Among Denied or Discouraged Borrowers?

Albert Touna Mama and Jacques Ewoudou
Since the seminal work of Jappelli (1990), it has become standard to identify as liquidity-constrained, borrowers who were either turned down for credit or did not apply because they might be turned down. In this paper, we show that the so-called “denied or discouraged” proxy does not capture...
Nov 2010
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