E20

Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)

Credit market heterogeneity, balance sheet (in) dependence, financial shocks

This paper presents a real business cycle model with financial frictions and two credit markets to investigate the qualitative and quantitative relevance of credit market heterogeneity. To address this line of inquiry we contrast the transmission of financial shocks in an economy where loans are the only form of credit to one in which both loans and bonds exist.

What explains the recent growth performance in Sub-Saharan Africa? Results from a Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

This paper empirically identifies the main driving forces behind the recent development in economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa based on a two-step procedure. Given the role of convergence in explaining the level of economic development, the first step employs the new extension of the sigma convergence developed by Phillip and Sul (2007) to test and endogenously identify the formation of different steady state paths across a sample of 34 countries selected based on available data over the period 1996-2010.

Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa

While South Africa’s growth performance has improved somewhat in recent years, it has generally been poor over the past few decades. This article uses Chenery’s factor decomposition method to analyse the sources of growth in South Africa from 1970 to 2007. Using input-output data, the growth of each subsector is decomposed into components associated with export growth, import substitution, growth in domestic demand, and growth in intermediate demand. The results highlight the dependence on domestic demand expansion as a source of growth since 2000, especially for manufacturing.

Economic Growth and Inequality: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America

We investigate in this paper whether income growth has played any role on inequality in all nine young South American democracies during 1970-2007. The results, based on dynamic panel time-series analysis, suggest that income growth has played
a progressive role in reducing inequality during the period. Moreover, the results suggest that this negative relationship is stronger in the 1990s and early 2000s, a period in which the continent achieved macroeconomic stabilisation, political consolidation

Social capital as an engine of growth: Multisectoral modelling and implications

We propose a multisector endogenous growth model incorporating social capital. Social capital only serves as an input in the production of human capital and it involves a cost in terms of the final good. We show that in contrast to existing alternative specifications, this setting assures that social capital enhances productivity gains by playing the role of a timing belt driving the transmission and propagation of all productivity shocks throughout society whatever the sectoral origin of the shocks.

The Exchange Rate, Dutch Disease and Manufacturing in South Africa: What do the Data Say?

The Dutch disease argument suggests that in commodity exporting countries "overvaluation" of the currency due to increases in commodity prices harms manufacturing even though the economy as a whole benefits, led by the booming natural resources sector. The relationship between the real exchange rate and manufacturing is studied here with regard to South Africa as a minerals-rich export-led economy. Since manufacturing is co-determined within a system of inter-related variables, a Johansen VAR/VEC cointegration approach was used to estimate these relationships.

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