D74

Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances

Globalisation and Conflicts: A Theoretical Approach

This paper is aimed at providing insights into the interplay between globalisation and conflicts through a theoretical literature review. The motivation is drawn from a large number of debates advocating globalisation as being a double edged sword. The main argument is drawn from the Liberal premise that globalization, through integration and economic interdependence dampens the likelihood of conflicts, whilst the opposite holds for Structuralist theorists.

A Dream Deferred: the Microfoundations of Direct Political Action in Pre- and Post-democratization South Africa

Persistent protests might endanger the stability of young democracies because the economic legacies of the old autocratic regimes tend to outlive their political structures. This paper seeks to explore the micro-level predictors of protest potential in South Africa before and after the end of apartheid. The results of the cohort analysis reveal that the political consciousness of the anti-apartheid struggle has a lasting effect. The gap between actual income and expected returns to education explains protest potential better than comparison of one’s income with that of a reference group.

The social and political case for promoting economic growth and broad-based innovation in South Africa

Biniam Egu Bedasso

Popular protest in South Africa has increased sharply in recent years to the extent that it now seems to have pervaded the floor of parliament. In post-apartheid South Africa, economic slowdown is found to be a precursor of a rise in public protest. Young people are more ready than other age groups to take direct political action. Micro-level evidence shows that ‘unfulfilled expectations’ with respect to one’s own perceived income potential is the strongest predictor of propensity to protest. Limiting protest action to a ‘healthy’ level that does not lead to a downward spiral of instability requires framing the growth agenda as a political imperative. Medium-term remedies may include raising the quality of education, entrenching a meritocratic system of remuneration and promoting broad-based innovation.

Don’t Make War, Make Elections. Franchise Extension and Violence in XIXth-Century Colombia

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in de ning and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined.

Ethnic Solidarity and the Individual Determinants of Ethnic Identification

This paper examines the individual determinants of ethnic identification using large sample surveys (about 30,000 respondents) representative of seven capitals of West-African countries. A small model that relates ethnic identification to an investment in ethnic capital suggests that individuals initially deprived of social or human capital resort to ethnicity to get socially inserted, and do even more so if their ethnic group itself is well inserted. Empirical results are consistent with this simple theory. First, education lowers ethnic salience.

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