Climate variability can affect economies directly through its impact on agricultural output, and indirectly, through its effect on the activities of down-stream industries and household welfare. This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with a disaggregated agricultural sector to analyse the impact of a drought on the Ugandan economy. The losses were assessed with respect to GDP, agricultural output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption. The drought effects were shown to vary by sector.
Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
This paper analyses the economy-wide impact of the dividend tax (DT) on the South African economy, which was increased from 10% to 15% by the government in 2012. The analysis was conducted using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa, which captured the observed structure of South Africa’s economy. The parameters of the CGE equations were calibrated to observed data from a social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2010. One policy option was considered.
In this paper, the effects of reducing tariffs are analysed through a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the DRC. The specific DRC Formal-Informal Model (DRCFIM) is a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model that captures the observed structure of the DRC’s formal and informal economies, as well as the numerous linkages or transmission channels connecting their various economic agents, such as investors, firms, traders, and the government. The parameters of the CGE equations are calibrated to observed data from a social accounting matrix (SAM).
This paper examines the effects of land use in the DRC through the application of DRC formal-informal sector computable general equilibrium model, developed with the 2007 DRC Social Accounting Matrix. Two policy options are analysed. Firstly, the hypothetical policy change introduced in the short and long run application of this model is a land use subsidy where a 10% cut in the price of land both in the formal and informal sector is applied. In tracing the impact of this shock on the economy, as expected, gross domestic product and employment increase.
This paper analyses wage subsidies on lower-skilled formal workers in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A multi-sectoral empirically-calibrated general equilibrium model capturing the economy-wide transactions between the formal and informal sectors is used to analyse one policy simulation in the DRC. The short and long run simulation in which the government provides wage subsidy to lower-skilled workers indicates that the government is able to significantly improve the deficiencies of the formal and informal households’ real disposable incomes.
This paper is the first one to analyse the effect of aggregate government spending and taxes on output for South Africa using three types of a calibrated DSGE model and more data driven models such as a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) and a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) to capture possible asymmetries and time variation of fiscal impulses.
South Africa is in the grip of an electricity crisis marked by a euphemism known as “load shedding”. The demand for electricity has grown to the point that the supply reserve margin is often under threat, necessitating the electricity supplier to cut supply to some areas for various periods of time, or to shed load. This is a condition previously unknown to South Africa since the country has enjoyed electricity security from the mid-1950s. Are we, however, heading in the same direction when considering water? Is water shedding inevitable?