D1

The Migrant Network Effect: An empirical analysis of rural-to-urban migration in South Africa

Recent empirical migration literature in South Africa suggests that access to physical and human capital, in the way of finance and education respectively, are key factors in increasing one’s probability of migrating. This paper attempts to extend this literature by directly measuring the extent to which social capital, broadly defined as one’s access to a migrant network, affects the probability of rural-to-urban migration.

Effects of Social Norms on Multiple Partnerships: Evidence from Young Adults in the Metropolitan Communities of Cape Town, South Africa

Even though antiretroviral treatment is becoming more efficient and available, new HIV infections still occur. This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Sexual transmission of HIV is still the main mode of transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, and multiple sex partners have been shown to be crucial for the spread of the epidemic. It is therefore problematic that sexual risk-taking, in terms of multiple sex partners, persists in spite of HIV awareness and knowledge.

‘Know Your Epidemic’: The Effects of Expected Health and Contextual Health Uncertainty on Risky Sex

This study measures the link between expected health and contextual health uncertainty on sexual behaviours associated with the risk of HIV infection. We extend similar studies on the subject by focusing on contextual factors as a way of explaining individual sexual behaviour in low and high HIV infection areas across sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, we find expected health and contextual health uncertainty to have significant effects on sexual risk taking. These results point to the fact that context is equally important than the widely held view that individual level characteristics (e.g.

Antitrust market definition using statistical learning techniques and consumer characteristics

Market definition is the first step in an antitrust case and relies on empirical evidence of substitution patterns. Cross-price elasticity estimates are preferred evidence for studying substitution patterns, due to advances in IO econometric modelling. However, the data and time requirements of these models weigh against their universal adoption for market definition purposes. These practical constraints — and the need for a greater variety of evidence — lead practitioners to rely on a larger set of less sophisticated tools for market definition.

Orphanhood and Schooling in South Africa: Trends in the vulnerability of orphans between 1993 and 2005

Using 11 nationally representative surveys conducted between 1993 and 2005 this paper assesses the extent to which the vulnerability of orphans to poorer educational outcomes has changed over time as the AIDS crisis deepens in South Africa. This paper seeks to establish whether the fear that extended families are no longer effective safety nets may be overstated or whether traditional coping strategies are indeed breaking down. Patterns of care giving for orphans do appear to be shifting over time but these changes are taking place within the extended family safety net.

Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in School Advancement in Urban South Africa

This paper develops a stochastic model of grade repetition to analyze the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that progress through secondary school is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test.

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