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C58

Financial Econometrics

A financial stress index for South Africa: A time-varying correlation approach

Theshne Kisten
This paper develops a new index of financial market stress for South Africa (SAFSI) over the period 1995-2017, that has the advantage of capturing the interconnectedness of financial markets as well as enabling each indicator to be assessed in terms of its systemic importance. The index represents...
Nov 2019
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Capturing the Black Swan: Scenario-Based Asset Allocation with Fat Tails and Non-Linear Correlations

Vsevolod I Gorlach
This paper highlights the shortfalls of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Amongst other flaws, MPT assumes that returns are normally distributed; that correlations are linear; and that risks are symmetrical. We propose a dynamic and flexible scenario-based approach to portfolio selection that...
Aug 2017
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Modelling Stock Return Volatility Dynamics in Selected African Markets

Daniel King and Ferdi Botha
This paper examines whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected...
Jan 2014
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