Model Construction and Estimation
The construction sector in developing countries has propelled economic growth in the most recent period, yet analysis of growth performance has failed to take this into account. This article is a comparative analysis of the relationship between the construction sector and aggregate output for a panel of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a panel generalized methods of moments (GMM).
This paper assesses the extent of trade linkages and shock transmission between African economies and its main trading partners, namely China, Europe and the United States (US). Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, the paper investigates how shock transmission between Africa and its main trading partners evolves over the periods before and after the 1990s. Moreover, the paper assesses the extent of business cycle synchronization between Africa and the three trading partners during the same periods.
This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate. The financial stress indicator variables comprise a set of variables from the main segments of the South African financial market that include the bond and equity securities markets, the commodities market and the foreign exchange rate market.
This paper examines the relationship between ination and ination expectations of analysts, business, and trade unions in South Africa during the inflation targeting (IT) regime. We consider inflation expectations based on the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) quarterly survey observed from 2000Q1 to 2013Q1. We estimate ination expectations of individual agents as the weighted average of lagged ination and the inflation target. The results indicate that expectations are heterogeneous across agents.
This study assesses debt sustainability in South Africa allowing for possible nonlinearities in the form of threshold behaviour by fiscal authorities. A long historical data series on the debt-to-GDP ratio and models with fixed and time-varying thresholds allowing the level of debt to vary relative to its recent history and the occurrence of financial crises are used in the analysis. First, the results reveal that fiscal consolidation occurs at a much lower debt-to-GDP ratio of 46 percent in the period 1946 to 2010 compared to 65 percent in the period 1865 to 1945.
This paper assesses the ability of the Rotterdam model and of three versions of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to recover the time-varying elasticities of a true demand system and to satisfy theoretical regularity. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we nd that the Rotterdam model performs better than the linear-approximate AIDS at recovering the signs of all the time-varying elasticities. More importantly, the Rotterdam model has the ability to track the paths of time-varying income elasticities, even when the true values are very high.
This paper studies the trade linkages between South Africa and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. We apply a global vector autoregressive model (global VAR) to investigate the degree of trade linkages and shock trans- mission between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995Q1-2009Q4.
In addition to the conventional linear cointegration test, this paper tests the asymmetry relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure, by making a distinction between the adjustment of positive (budget surplus) and negative (budget deficit) deviations from equilibrium. The analysis uses quarterly data for South Africa.