C32

Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models

Modelling exchange rate volatility dynamics: Empirical evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we extend the literature on modelling exchange rate volatility in South Africa by estimating a range of models, including some that attempt to account for structural breaks and long memory. We examine the key nominal exchange rates of the South African rand and replicate common findings in the literature; particularly that volatility is ‘persistent’. We investigate whether this ‘persistence’ is due to structural breaks or long memory, and the extent of asymmetric responses of the rand to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’.

Is There a SADC Business Cycle? Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model

Countries that adopt a common currency automatically relinquish their monetary policy autonomy. Hence, it is imperative for countries wanting to join a currency union to ensure that their business cycles are synchronized in order to ensure symmetric propagation of the effect of monetary policy. Put differently, countries with asynchronous business cycles require country-specific policies to stabilize their economies. Thus, in this study we assess the readiness of the SADC region to adopt a single currency in 2018 as proposed.

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

This paper examines the dependence structure between two developed and four emerging African stock markets in a copula framework. Using daily data from January 2000 to April 2014, our empirical results show that dependence structure between African and international stocks varies overtime, but generally weak. There is asymmetric and weak tail dependence for all the countries, implying stock return co-movement varies in bearish and bullish markets and that the dependence is generally not strong in extreme market conditions.

The impact of monetary policy on household consumption in South Africa. Evidence from Vector Autoregressive Techniques

This paper investigates the “cost of credit effect” of monetary policy on household consumption of final goods and services in South Africa, testing the hypotheses of the Keynesian interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. We focus on three periods; post transition from apartheid, during inflation targeting and during the global financial crisis. Quarterly data from 1994Q1 to 2012Q4, constant parameter vector autoregressive techniques (VAR) by Sims (1980) and time varying parameter VAR by Primicieri (1995) are used in this study.

On the Causal Links between the Stock Market and the Economy of Hong Kong

There is a bulk of literature that identifies the major economic drivers of Hong Kong’s rapid and steady economic performance over the last three decades. Of these major economic drivers identified, the performance of the stock market has received less attention. This paper examines the causal links between stock market performance and economic performance of Hong Kong in an augmented VAR setting.

Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: An Empirical Analysis of Africa and its Main Trading Partners using Global VAR

This paper assesses the extent of trade linkages and shock transmission between African economies and its main trading partners, namely China, Europe and the United States (US). Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, the paper investigates how shock transmission between Africa and its main trading partners evolves over the periods before and after the 1990s. Moreover, the paper assesses the extent of business cycle synchronization between Africa and the three trading partners during the same periods.

Assessment of Monetary Union in SADC: Evidence from Cointegration and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) being successful from the viewpoint of the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area (OCA) theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique, panel unit root tests, Pedroni’s residual cointegration test and error correction based panel co-integration tests.

Credit Procyclicality and Financial Regulation in South Africa

This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the economic cycle to determine its usefulness as a reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa. The study finds that the common reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers, which is based on the gap between the ratio of aggregate private sector credit to gross domestic product and its long term trend, increases during the economic cycle busts, while such a relationship is broken during the economic cycle booms.

Financial Stress Indicator Variables and Monetary Policy in South Africa

This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate. The financial stress indicator variables comprise a set of variables from the main segments of the South African financial market that include the bond and equity securities markets, the commodities market and the foreign exchange rate market.

Disaggregated Credit Extension and Financial Distress in South Africa

This study analyses the relationship between disaggregated credit extension and financial distress in South Africa. It commences by constructing a composite indicator of financial distress and then examines its correlation with components of disaggregated credit extension. Of particular interest is to isolate the components of disaggregated credit extension that show a strong relationship with the measure of financial distress for financial stability purposes.

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