C14

Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

Capturing the Black Swan: Scenario-Based Asset Allocation with Fat Tails and Non-Linear Correlations

This paper highlights the shortfalls of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Amongst other flaws, MPT assumes that returns are normally distributed; that correlations are linear; and that risks are symmetrical. We propose a dynamic and flexible scenario-based approach to portfolio selection that incorporates an investor’s economic forecast.

Qualitative Guidance and Predictability of Monetary Policy in South Africa

With the adoption of the in‡ation targeting (IT) regime in 2000, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) became independent. With the independence of monetary policy comes accountability to the public at large, which in turn leads to transparency in the conduct of monetary policy. The SARB has come a long way in its communication strategy.

Assessing Banking Sector Competition in Zimbabwe Using a Panzar-Rosse Approach

This paper assesses the level of competition in Zimbabwe’s banking sector using the Panzar-Rosse H-statistic. The H-Statistic has been assessed, using the total revenues regression equation, and applying the panel least square regression model with fixed effects. The H-statistics is estimated at 0.56, which result is confirmed, using bank random effects and the General methods of moments, yield similar results.

Climate change and economic growth in sub-Sahara Africa: A nonparametric evidence

Climate change has been classed as the greatest and urgent global issue facing humanity today, yet the empirics of the debate remain largely muted, more so with reference to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the impact of warming global temperatures are forecasted to have the worst impact. This paper is a contribution to the empirics of climate change and its effect on sustainable economic growth in SSA using nonparametric regression techniques.

The Economic Approach to Fertility: A Causal Mediation Analysis

This study develops an economic fertility model which explicitly incorporates both the costs of childrearing and contraception behaviour. In this setting, a couple capacity to procreate depends on their fecundity, as well as their contraception and sexual behaviours; and the ideal number of children is chosen by maximizing the utility of children, subject to a budget constraint reflecting the couple's income, and their specific explicit and implicit costs of rearing children.

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Efficiency and Productivity of the Banking System in South Africa

South Africa‘s financial sector is believed to have weathered the contagion and catastrophic effects of the 2008 world wide financial crisis partly on account of a sound regulatory framework and solid macroeconomic policies. In this paper, we seek to measure efficiency and productivity changes during the period of the crisis through an analysis of bank performance over the period 2000 — 2010 using a two stage methodology framework.

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of annual inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Annual inflation is decomposed into its trend, oscillating and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Five cyclical components are identified with differing amplitude and frequency. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation.

Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa

This paper is the first one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules augmented with an indicator of financial stability for the case of South Africa, (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy decisions.

Nonparametric estimation when income is reported in bands and at points

We show how to estimate kernel density functions of distributions in which some of the responses are provided in brackets, by inverse probability weighting. We consider two cases, one where the data are CAR and where the data are not CAR. We show how the selection probabilities can be estimated by means of the EM algorithm without specifying a parametric distribution function for the variable. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that this procedure estimates the selection parameters fairly precisely.

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