Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies

Working Paper 307
Seedwell Hove, Albert Touna Mama and Fulbert Tchana Tchana
Publication date: 
August, 2012
Economic Modelling

Commodity terms of trade shocks have continued to drive macroeconomic ‡uctuations in most emerging market economies. The volatility and persistence of these shocks have posed great challenges for monetary policy. This study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks in commodity dependent emerging market economies. The model is calibrated to the South African economy. The study shows that CPI in‡ation targeting performs relatively better than exchange rate targeting and non-traded in‡ation targeting both in terms of reducing macroeconomic volatility and enhancing welfare. However, macroeconomic stabilisation comes at a cost of increased exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the appropriate response to commodity induced exogeneous shocks is to target CPI inflation.

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