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Working Papers

Dissecting post-apartheid labour market developments: Decomposing a discrete choice model while dealing with unobservables

Martin Wittenberg
The abolition of apartheid should have improved the employment prospects of black South Africans. The reality seems to have been different, with rising unemployment rates. Disentangling the real trends from changes in measurement and sampling design has proved to be difficult. We tackle this issue...
Jan 2007
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Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The Case for Low Interest Rates Restored

Shakill Hassan
This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjeee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response to...
Nov 2006
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Industry Structure and Labour Market Flexibility in the South African Manufacturing Sector: A Time Series and Panel Data Approach

Johannes W. Fedderke and Andrew J Hill
Our investigation of industry structure in South African manufacturing reveals evidence of imperfect competition. We find an average mark-up of 50% for the period 1970 to 2004. Results suggest that there is no consistent trend in the mark-up over time. This paper extends the analysis of industry...
Sep 2006
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The Relationship Between International Equity Market Behaviour and the JSE

Nick Samouilhan
This paper investigates empirically the relationship between domestic and international market returns and volatilities, using the London Stock Exchange as the international market proxy. In order to address problems of widely differing bourse composition, the relationships are tested at both the...
Sep 2006
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What Advertisers Want: A Hedonic Analysis of Advertising Rates in South African Consumer Magazines

Nicolas Pietersma
This article explores the role of circulation, readership and reader demographics in the determination of advertising rates in South African consumer magazines. The study uses panel data collected between 2000 and 2003 to quantify the relationships by assigning implicit prices to various magazine...
Sep 2006
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Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures

J W. Fedderke & Z Bogetic
Empirical explorations of the growth and productivity impacts of infrastructure have been characterized by ambiguous (countervailing signs) results with little robustness. A number of explanations of the contradictory findings have been proposed. These range from the crowd – out of private by...
Sep 2006
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The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?

P Burger and M Markinkov
Is there a Phillips curve relationship present in South Africa and if so, what form does it take? Traditionally the way to estimate the Phillips curve is merely to regress the change in the price level on a measure of the output gap (or the deviation of actual unemployment from the NAIRU). However...
Apr 2006
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