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Working Papers

publication

Impact of Social Transfers on Depressive Symptoms: Evidence from the South African Old Age Pension

Adeola Oyenubi and Joseph Ajefu
We study the effect of income receipt in form of Old age pension (OAP) on the prevalence of depressive symptoms using the Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10). We exploit the exogeneous age eligibility criteria in a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the...
Oct 2020
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publication

The impact of AGOA on Export Flows from sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic system GMM analysis

Oro, Oro Ufuo and Paul Alagidede
This study seeks to understand the relationship between the United States imports from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the overall exports from SSA between 1996 and 2018. It examines the drivers of that relationship drawing from the existing theories of international trade. The study found that the...
Oct 2020
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publication

Does Child Support Grant incentivise childbirth in South Africa?

Adeola Oyenubi and Uma Kollamparambil
We consider the perverse incentive that can be created for poor households that are benefiting from the South African Child Support Grant (CSG). We acknowledge the fact that the CSG has been successful in improving child outcomes. However, if caregivers see the CSG as a livelihood strategy and...
Sep 2020
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How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach

Baneng Naape and Nyasha Mahonye
This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 – 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds...
Sep 2020
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publication

Does household net financial wealth explain the asymmetric reaction of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in South Africa?

Eliphas Ndou
Ndou et al (2019) showed that, in absolute terms, the decline in household consumption due to the monetary policy tightening shocks exceeds the increase in household consumption, following the monetary policy loosening shocks of the same magnitude. This paper applies a counterfactual vector...
Sep 2020
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publication

Examining the determinants of electricity demand by South African households per income level

J.A Bohlmann, R. Inglesi-Lotz
For the period 1975 - 2016, this paper examines the determinants of the residential demand for electricity in South Africa including disposable income, electricity prices, food prices as well as the impact of the 2007/08 load-shedding wave and the 2008 electricity price restructuring. Given the...
Sep 2020
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publication

A Sequence to Reverse Poverty: Institutions, State Capacity and Human Empowerment

Sansia Blackmore and Reneé van Eyden
This paper explores the fundamental or deep causes of poverty persistence, which remains a central challenge of the modern world. In theory, rising political participation in a democracy operationalises checks on state predation and cultivates development-enabling state capacity. This did not...
Aug 2020
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publication

Prenatal health and weather-related shocks under social safety net policy in Kenya

Silas Ongudi and Djiby Racine Thiam
Exposure to weather shocks around the time of birth has been shown to have deleterious effects on later life outcomes. In the short run, such shocks can lead to income loss, especially when households are not insured but rely heavily on rainfed agricultural activities. In the long run, however,...
Aug 2020
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publication

The South African - United States Sovereign Bond Spread and its Association with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Johannes W. Fedderke
The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread...
Aug 2020
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publication

A fiscus for better economic and social development in South Africa

Francois J Stofberg, Jan H van Heerden, and Heinrich R Bohlmann
After showing that the bulk of government expenditure is unproductive, we consider the impact of an alternative fiscal policy mix in South Africa. The alternative suggests freezing the real government wage bill for five years and using the savings generated by this decision to increase spending on...
Aug 2020
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