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Working Papers

Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukovz, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”,“the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for...
Jul 2020
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The Political Economy of Palm Oil Expansion and Deforestation in Indonesia

Elías Cisnerosy, Krisztina Kis-Katosz and Nunung Nuryartono
This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest loss and forest fires as well as measures of land use licensing...
Jul 2020
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Contagion without deposit insurance: The South African small bank crisis of 2002/3

Roy Havemann
Following the failure of Saambou bank in February 2002, another seven South African banks failed within a month, including the fifth-largest, and a further five within a year. In total, twenty-two small and mid-sized banks deregistered over two years: half the total number of banks, and nearly 10 per...
Jun 2020
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Financial Statecraft: Government Choice of Debt Instruments

Eric Arias, Layna Mosely, B. Peter Rosendorff
We explore the diversity of means by which governments borrow - from commercial banks, sovereign bond issues, official bilateral creditors, and multilateral financial institutions. Although political economy scholars tend to analyze financing instruments in isolation from one another, governments...
Jun 2020
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The impacts of unconditional cash transfers on schooling in adolescence and young adulthood: Evidence from South Africa

Neryvia Pillay Bell
I study an expansion of a South African social grant program that provided unconditional cash transfers to adolescents for the first time. Over the period 2009 to 2012, age eligibility for the child support grant was progressively extended from children under 14 to children under 18 years old. I...
May 2020
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The Effect of Tobacco and Alcohol Control Policies on Household Spending Patterns in Kenya: An Approach Using Matched Difference in Differences

Abel Otwori Nyagwachi, Grieve Chelwa and Corné van Walbeek
This paper examines the effect of tobacco and alcohol control policies on tobacco and alcohol consumption patterns and the evolution of crowding-out effects on other household expenditure in Kenya. The current literature on crowding-out does not provide a defensible instrumental variable for a...
May 2020
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Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

Alain Kabundi, Tumisang Loate and Nicola Viegi
This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990- 2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-...
Apr 2020
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Redistribution, Inequality, and Efficiency with Credit Constraints

Yoseph Y. Getachew and Stephen J. Turnovsky
We develop a model that characterizes the joint determination of income distribution and macroeconomic aggregate dynamics. We identify multiple channels through which alternative public policies such as transfers, consumption and income taxes, and public investment will affect the inequality;...
Apr 2020
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