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Exchange rate

The J–Curve Phenomenon: Evidence from Commodity Trade Between South Africa and the United States

Hammed Amusa and David Fadiran
Previous studies on the J–curve phenomenon for South Africa have been carried out using either aggregate trade data between South Africa and the rest of the world or between South Africa and her major trading partners. The evidence of J-curve effects in South Africa's bilateral trade have been...
Apr 2019
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Do monetary policy announcements affect foreign exchange returns and volatility? Some evidence from high-frequency intra-day South African data.

Cyril May, Greg Farrell and Jannie Rossouw
This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both the levels and volatility of the South African rand/United States dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this ‘event study’ proceeds using intra-day minute-by-minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the...
Mar 2017
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Inflating our troubles: South Africa’s economic performance and the exchange rate

D. Fowkes, C. Loewald and M. Marinkov
South Africa’s export performance has been disappointing, and this is likely related to weak growth outcomes. We investigate the effect of the exchange rate on these outcomes, through two possible channels: its level and its volatility. We find little evidence in the literature or in our own tests...
Jun 2016
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Exchange Rate Policy and Export Performance in Efficiency-Driven Economies

Nicola Kim Rowbotham, Adrian Saville & Douglas Mbululu
Increased globalisation, coupled with rising domestic competition, has led a growing number of firms to search beyond their traditional domestic markets for business opportunities in recent years. As a result, export-led economic growth has gained renewed attention amongst policy makers,...
Oct 2014
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Copius Structural Shifts in Exchange Rates of the South African Rand (Post-1994): Do They Matter (for Unit Root Testing)? What are the Most Likely Triggers?

Cyril May
There is a theoretical case for real exchange rates to be stationary, but conventional unit root tests generally find nonstationarity in most economic data expressed in nominal terms; exchange rates in particular. Perron (1989) questioned the latter interpretation on the basis that the presence of...
Jul 2013
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