C25

Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?

The money supply can be broadly defined as consisting of currency and deposits. While currency forms but a small portion of the total money supply, it can be a crucial determinant of spending behaviour and subsequently economic activity. The ability of the money supply to predict an up- or downswing in economic activity, as measured by a positive or negative output gap, is evaluated over a sample period 1980 – 2012. Two models are estimated, one using only the currency component and a second using the total money supply (M3).

Determining Visitor Preferences for Rhinoceros Conservation Management at Private, Ecotourism Game Reserves in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa: A Choice Modeling Experiment

South Africa harbours 95 percent of the world’s threatened white rhinoceros (18 000) population and 40 percent of the critically endangered black rhinoceros (1 950) population. Increased levels of rhinoceros poaching in South Africa, and the imminent threat of extinction, has emphasized the need for improved management and conservation policies. This pilot study employs a discrete choice experiment in order to value selected supply-side rhinoceros management and conservation strategies at private, ecotourism game reserves in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa.

Pricing of National Park Visits in Kenya: The Case of Lake Nakuru National Park

This study analyses the factors influencing pricing of National Park visits in Kenya. A two step regression procedure is used to develop a pricing mechanism for Lake Nakuru National Park (LNNP). In the first stage, count data models are applied to estimate the Trip generating function to LNNP and in the second, the results from count data models are used to simulate visitation as price varied through an increase in the gate fee to LNNP. The simulated data is used to estimate the demand curves for LNNP.

Measuring the indirect costs associated with the establishment of a wind farm: An application of the Contingent Valuation Model

Although a green energy source, the location of electrical generating windmills may cause a disamenity effect (negative externality). The establishment of a wind farm is known as a locally undesirable land use (LULU) and leads to the not-in-my-backyard syndrome (NIMBY). In an application of the contingent valuation method, a willingness-to-accept framework was used to estimate the aggregate annual compensation required to allow the construction of a wind farm near Jeffrey’s Bay, South Africa. This compensation amounted to R490 695.

The Empirics of Banking Regulation

This paper empirically assesses whether banking regulation is effective at preventing banking crises. We use a monthly index of banking system fragility, which captures almost every source of risk in the banking system, to estimate the effect of regulatory measures (entry restriction, reserve requirement, deposit insurance, and capital adequacy requirement) on banking stability in the context of a Markov-switching model. Our methodology is less prone to selection and simultaneity bias which are common in this type of study.

Can local communities in Zimbabwe be trusted with wildlife management?: Evidence from contingent valuation of elephants

If local communities living adjacent to the elephant see it as a burden, then they cannot be trusted to be its stewards. To assess their valuation of it, a CVM study was conducted for one CAMPFIRE district in Zimbabwe. Respondents were classified according to their preferences over the elephant. The median WTP for the preservation of 200 elephants is ZW$260 (US$4.73) for respondents who considered the elephant a public good while the same statistic is ZW$137 (US$2.49) for those favouring its translocation.

Dissecting post-apartheid labour market developments: Decomposing a discrete choice model while dealing with unobservables

The abolition of apartheid should have improved the employment prospects of black South Africans. The reality seems to have been different, with rising unemployment rates. Disentangling the real trends from changes in measurement and sampling design has proved to be difficult. We tackle this issue by means of an new methodology for decomposing changes in a proportion. Our approach is based on a methodology presented by Lemieux for continuous variables. In particular we show how we can construct counterfactual data at the individual level controlling for unobservable effects.

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